Sawlog prices have fallen by 15-20% in a majority of the countries manufacturing softwood lumber the past 12 months, according to the Wood Resource Quarterly. In North America, prices were down only seven percent because of healthy US domestic lumber demand and respectable log export volumes from both the US and Canada.
Sawlog prices fell again in the 2Q/15 in most of the 19 regions worldwide that are part of the GlobalSawlog Price Index (GSPI). The only regions where prices increased were in Northwest Russia and the Interior of British Columbia. The GSPI fell 1.5% to $72.63/m3 in the 2Q/15. This Index is currently at its lowest level since 2009, and is down 20% from its all-time high four years ago.
Adjusting a Log Processor
Adjusting a Log Processor
Over the past year, sawlog prices have fallen the most in Central European, Eastern European, and the Nordic countries (in ranking order) predominantly as a result of a weakening Euro. Domestic log prices in US dollar terms have also declined in Latin America and Oceania, but to a lesser degree.
While log prices have fallen between 15-20% in most regions of the world the past 12 months, average prices were down only seven percent in North America, where healthy US domestic lumber demand and respectable log export volumes from both the US and Canada kept consumption of logs high in 2014 and 2015.
The west coast of the US, British Columbia and New Zealand have expanded log and lumber exports to China quite substantially from 2010 to 2014, and these are also the egions that had the highestsawlog prices in early 2015 as compared to their respectiveten-year averages. In the northwestern US, there has been a steady increase in log costs since 2009, and prices in 2014 were higher than their ten-year averages. However, during the first six months of 2015, log exports to Asia have been substantially lower than during the same period in 2014.
Since last summer, shipments to China have plummeted by 45% to their lowest levels since early 2012. Two major factors have been influencing the decline in log imports to China in late 2014 and early 2015: there is decreased demand for wood in China, and high log inventories within China itself. The reduced demand for US logs in Asia has resulted in declining sawlog prices in the US Northwest.
In the 2Q/15, average prices for Douglas-fir and hemlock were at theirlowest levels since 2012.Global lumber, sawlog and pulpwood market reporting is included in the 52-page quarterly publicationWood Resource Quarterly (WRQ). The report, which was established in 1988 and has subscribers in over 30 countries, tracks sawlog, pulpwood, lumber and pellet prices, trade and market developments in most key regions around the world. To subscribe to the WRQ, please go towww.woodprices.com.